trMP's victory is commercially challenging yet strategically beneficial for India. To understand the true significance of Trump's remarkable comeback, we need to move beyond emotions to implications. This alone is not enough in international relations. Along with personal relationships, the coordination or conflict of mutual interests of the two countries decides the direction of policies. In this respect, how Trump's second term will be for India will be known only after he takes charge in January. Trump is now recast as a more serious obstacle to their objectives than China or multilateralism. Worse for the Deep State is that there is every possibility that both the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza will either be ended by sovereign multilateral coordination, or, swept under the carpet to ensure a return to business as usual. Will be suppressed. Democrat Tulsi Gabbard has wreaked havoc among Democrats during the presidential campaign and true Republican royalty like Liz Cheney has openly campaigned for the Democrats.
At first glance this may seem confusing, even strange, but that's what happens when political ideology goes down the rabbit hole as quickly as it did in America. If parties no longer know what they stand for, imagine how confused ordinary politicians, party workers and voters will be? In a way, America is like India, which was looking for a new direction at the beginning of this century; It took two general elections, a dull decade and the fiery arrival of Narendra Modi to shake things up and chart a new path.
For Trump the businessman, balancing the accounts and reducing the trade deficit is a natural task, which he will pursue as diligently as he did from 2016 to 2020. Taking inspiration from the strategy of Trump's first term, we can expect an increase in oil and gas exports from the US to the world's largest energy markets such as China, India and Europe. This is what they did successfully until the pandemic and the irony is that Joe Biden also tried to repeat it, but did not succeed.
Firstorder effects are good for the US because increased activity in the upstream hydrocarbon sector means more jobs, economic growth, a lower trade deficit, and lower inflation. Oil, especially 'shale' oil, contributed more to reviving the US economy than any other sector and may do so again. The flip side is that Trump's inwardlooking approach may lead to the loss of some jobs in India and we may see some visa wars.
Convincing China and India to purchase US crude oil is an honest agreement on the diplomatic front, which for all practical purposes would broadly mean that India and China would be able to pursue their growing global interests without too much US interference in domestic affairs. Will be left alone to consolidate the position. Certainly, there will be some noise. In response, it is possible that big oil and gas exporters like Saudi Arabia could unilaterally cut prices to maintain market share, while the US uses all its remaining influence to squeeze Qatar and keep Iran out of the game. Uses.
One indicator of the progress of this game is to wait and see whether India resumes purchasing crude oil from Iran. If this happens, all bets will be off on how global dynamics will change, as it will mean that the US has accepted multipolarity as the new global reality. There will be some kind of return to America's position on the two ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Both wars will either end at the behest of multilateral sovereignty, or they will be brutally suppressed to ensure a return to normalcy.
This must return to normal for the US and the rest of the world as soon as possible, because, lest we forget, instead of getting a recovery year after the pandemic, we got two ugly proxy wars, rising inflation and debilitating trade disruptions, to name a few. Something that India escaped only because we cleverly bypassed the West's sanctions on Russia. Now a serious debate will begin on further American electoral reforms. The system is broken and needs to be fixed. What form the reform will take is only a matter of detail, but, in principle, it will start a dialogue on its need.
This is the only way America can avoid the civilizational collapse toward which it is currently headed, and Trump knows it. However, despite the tough trade stance, Trump's second term may prove beneficial for India. According to a report, during Trump's tenure, there will be pressure on India to investigate US trade surplus and impose possible sanctions. Despite this, America's 'China Plus One' strategy may bring opportunities for India.
'China plus one' is a business strategy in which companies expand their operations to other countries, such as India, to reduce dependence on China. This strategy emerged rapidly during Trump's first term due to tariffs on goods imported from China and an emphasis on bringing manufacturing domestically. This time too, this stance may be further strengthened by Trump's return, which will encourage investment and supply chain expansion in countries like India.
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Image Credit: KhasKhabar.