Top gaming industry analysts predict that the Nintendo Switch 2 could well match and succeed its predecessor in first-year sales, although it's far from guaranteed and requires Nintendo to have stock ready to go.
As a quick refresher, the Nintendo Switch sold around 15 million units worldwide during its first year in 2017 before reaching around 150 million consoles in the following years. It's interesting, then, to see reports that Nintendo is set to sell 20 million Switch 2 units during the console's first year.
Nintendo likely has high hopes for the console, although other elements we've seen from the launch of the PS5, such as resale, could also contribute to the number of units out of the box. However, to better understand whether Nintendo can deliver that many, we reached out to some veteran analysts to see what next year has in store for us.
For Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO and analyst at Japanese game industry consultancy Kantan Games, shipping 20 million units is “certainly possible” if Nintendo can ship that many in the first year. “There is pent-up demand, especially from hardcore Nintendo users who have been waiting for such an update for years,” he adds.
Estimates from Circana Games leader Mat Piscatella are more conservative, although they also largely consider the Nintendo Switch 2 to outperform its predecessor.
“Right now, I have the Switch 2 selling about 4.3 million units in the United States in calendar year 2025,” he says. “Call it between 14 and 17 million worldwide in calendar year 2025. Of course, first calendar year sales are traditionally limited to how many units are made and where those units are shipped, so we'll have to see how production is increased for switch 2.”
In the long term, Piscatella expects Switch 2 to be a “huge success,” although he doesn't expect it to reach the heights of Nintendo's first Switch console. “It's difficult to predict an outlier,” he says. “It could happen, but it's not likely.”
However, as both allude to, the Switch 2 can certainly be a big win for Nintendo without reaching the heights of its famous sibling. However, given that the Nintendo Switch is right up there with some of the best-selling consoles ever made, that's not a bad thing.
when will it Nintendo Switch 2 pre-orders go live? Here's everything you need to know before April.