with a nintendo switch 2 announcement that seems imminent between Intensification of leaks of hardware and third-party mockupsVeteran Circana gaming analyst and leader Mat Piscatella predicts the new console will sell 4.3 million units in the US by the end of 2025, assuming it launches in the first half of the year, despite the supply constraints driven by intense launch demand.
“We expect to see hardware limitations for several months after a significant initial surge in demand,” Piscatella said. “And the units sold will depend, of course, on manufacturing capabilities.”
In a follow-up response, Piscatella clarified “supply constraints coinciding with/driven by the initial demand boom. But this is just a guess, I don't know anything about [manufacturing] resources that are being put into this.”
“I still expect PlayStation 5 to take first place in hardware units sold in the United States during the year,” he concluded.
To put the timing of this forecast into context, we know for sure that Nintendo will reveal the Switch 2, or whatever it's officially called, at the end of March, although that reveal may come sooner. It's less clear when the console will actually launch. The original Switch was announced in October 2016 and launched in March 2017, so a Switch 2 release in the first half of 2025 seems likely. Recent rumors point to an April release at the earliest.
Piscatella previously told GamesRadar+ that, Compared to PlayStation and Xbox in the console market, Nintendo runs its own race. “to some extent”, although perhaps “not as much as Nintendo itself might believe.”
“Their sales patterns are a little different, the way consumers buy Nintendo devices along with a PlayStation, an Xbox or a PC,” he said, later adding that “you use the word supplemental and people think, 'Oh, No. That's secondary to you. And that's not the case at all, but they complement a gamer's gaming life, right? Not in a subordinate or second-tier way. They might be the most played device, but they are a device. which is often possessed by other types. of gaming devices. Which is great, it offers that variety. [Where] “They operate and their sales curves are simply different, and the factors that may be impacting PlayStation and Xbox may not be impacting Nintendo in the same way.”
Piscatella described 2025's GTA 6 and Nintendo Switch 2 combo as almost unprecedented: “I can't remember a year like this where so much of what's going to happen is focused on just two products.”